The race for office of the President of the United States is in full heat and with the first debate behind us people are wondering just who will win. Well, Allan Lichtman of American University in Washington, D.C. says he knows who will win. This is based on a formula he came up with that has accurately predicted the last 8 Presidential election outcomes. He believes this year's election in November will go to Donald Trump.
He bases his prediction system on history and the way it works is based on what he calls the "13 Keys to The White House." The performance of the current administration is taken into account. If the party currently in control has 6 or more of the 13 points go against them then they will lose the election. Lichtman says that the current party administration, the Democrat party, has at least 6 of these going against them.
A few examples of these include the fact that the Republicans currently hold the House and the Senate, the incumbent president is not running, there is a third party candidate running, and Hillary Clinton is not a charismatic candidate like an F.D.R. or John F. Kennedy.
However, Lichtman says that Trump may be the exception to his formula this time around. This is because he has done many things that Lichtman claims would drive any other candidate out of the race. His examples include that of making fun of the disabled, demeaning women or minority groups. He believes that Hillary Clinton is equipped to run the country, provided her health is good but does have concerns with Trump as President.
Check out the full 13 Keys to The White House below.
When five or less keys are false, the incumbent party is said to win; when six or more are false, the challenging party is said to win.
- Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections.
- Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination.
- Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president.
- Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign.
- Short term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
- Long term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
- Policy change: The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
- Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
- Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
- Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
- Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
- Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
- Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.